Optimal allocation of reliability tasks to mitigate faults during system development

^** Email: walter.johnston{at}baesystems.com^*** Email: j.quigley{at}strath.ac.uk^**** Email: lesley.walls{at}strath.ac.uk This paper considers reliability planning for a concept designfor a new system where a portfolio of possible reliability developmenttasks exists; the goal is to find a selection and sequence oftasks to achieve reliability targets subject to time constraintsat minimal cost. This is non-trivial given that each task potentiallycan expose several different weaknesses and each weakness potentiallycan be exposed by several different tasks. We use a Bayesianpoint process model to estimate the system reliability. Theprior distribution maps to a fault register and relates directlyto a set of potential engineering modifications.The likely impactof each task can be assessed using the point process model.An integer programming approach is used to sequence and scheduletasks under the constraint that contractual reliability requirementsmust be met. An illustrative example is provided and an extensionto system availability is proposed.