| 低碳经济背景下中国铅精炼企业产销存量预测的ARMA模型构建及其应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 卜华白,卜时珍. 低碳经济背景下中国铅精炼企业产销存量预测的ARMA模型构建及其应用研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2012, 42(7): 38-44 |
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| 作者姓名： | 卜华白 卜时珍 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 衡阳师范学院经济管理系,湖南衡阳421008;中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083
2. 衡阳师范学院经济管理系,湖南衡阳,421008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，2012年教育部人文社会科学基金，湖南省自然科学基金，湖南省社科规划基金，衡阳师范学院博士基金启动项目，衡阳师范学院湖南省重点学科企业理论方向研究成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了ARMA模型构建中的数学方法,构建了低碳经济背景下中国铅精炼企业产销存量预测的ARMA模型,检验结果显示,ARMA(4,0)模型是对低碳经济背景下中国铅精炼企业产销存量进行短期预测的较优模型,同时最后采用该模型对中国铅精炼企业未来5年的产销存量进行了预测,并就预测结果提出了促进我国精炼铅市场低碳可持续发展的三种政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国铅精炼企业 产销预测 ARMA模型 应用 |
ARMA Forecasting Model of Lead Refining Enterprise Sales - Stock and Its Application under Low-Carbon Economy |
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| BU Hua-bai , BU Shi-zhen. ARMA Forecasting Model of Lead Refining Enterprise Sales - Stock and Its Application under Low-Carbon Economy[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2012, 42(7): 38-44 |
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| Authors: | BU Hua-bai BU Shi-zhen |
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| Affiliation: | 1 (1.Department of Economics and Management,Hengyang Normal University,Hengyang 421008,China) (2.Business School of Central South University,Changsha 410083,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the mathematical methods building the ARMA model,and build a ARMA Forecasting Model of Lead Refining Enterprise Sales -Stock under Low-Carbon Economy,test results show,ARMA(4,0) model is a better short-term forecasting model how to forecast Lead Refining Enterprise Sales-Stock,Finally,the article also uses the model to forecast Chinese refined lead marketing stock in the next five years,and predicted the three policy recommendations in order to promote low-carbon sustainable development of China’s refined lead market based on the results. |
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| Keywords: | Chinese lead refineries sales forecasting ARMA model application |
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