基于景气指数的我国工业经济周期性波动特征及本轮波动特点研究

通过多方面收集与我国工业部门经济运行相关的月度经济指标,利用时差相关分析等方法从中筛选出我国工业经济运行的先行、一致和滞后指标,并利用国际上先进的合成指数方法构建了我国工业部门的景气指数,根据其波动态势具体分析了我国工业经济的周期性波动特征,并结合主要经济指标的变动对我国工业部门的本轮景气波动特点进行了具体分析。结果表明2000年以来我国工业经济共经历了三次完整地景气循环,现正处于第四次循环的下降期。其中第一轮循环属于典型的长扩张型周期,并且呈现明显的非对称性周期特征,第二轮循环属于典型的震荡型周期,且收缩幅度和扩张幅度明显缩小,受金融危机影响第三轮景气循环的谷底较深,但随后我国工业景气呈现强劲上升态势,目前工业景气指数处于下降期.

Research on Features of Cycle Fluctuation of Chinese Industry Based on Composite Index

In this paper,we collect the monthly economic indicators related to Chinese industry,from which we screen the leading,coincident,lagging indicators of industry by the method of cross correlation,and compute composite index(CI) of Chinese industry.Based on composite index,we find that from the 2000 to now,the Chinese industry has crossed over 3 business cycles.In the first cycle,the expansion phase of industrial economy is longer than the contraction phase.The second cycle shows significant turbulence characteristics and the degree of expansion and contraction significantly reduced.In the third cycle,the trough is very deep by the financial crisis,but then the composite index of Chinese industry shows strong upward trend.Now the Chinese industrial economy is in decline stage of the fourth business cycle.