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| 人口迁移模型的改进及系统动力学仿真预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 刘汝良,贾仁安,董秋仙. 人口迁移模型的改进及系统动力学仿真预测[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2008, 38(18) |
| 作者姓名： | 刘汝良 贾仁安 董秋仙 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南昌大学,数学系,江西,南昌,330031;南昌大学,系统工程研究所,江西,南昌,330031 2. 南昌大学,系统工程研究所,江西,南昌,330031 3. 南昌大学,数学系,江西,南昌,330031 |
| 摘 要： | 求出了Keyfitz模型和Rogers模型的理论解,并以Rogers模型为例,对人口迁移模型进行了改进,使之适用范围更广.在人口迁移模型的基础上,建立了系统动力学模型,并对江西省的人口迁移问题进行了仿真预测,模拟出了江西省农村人口、城镇人口及城市化率的变化趋势. |
| 关 键 词： | 人口迁移模型 系统动力学 仿真预测 |
Improvement of Population Migration Model and System Dynamics Simulation |
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| LIU Ru-liang,JIA Ren-an,DONG Qiu-xian. Improvement of Population Migration Model and System Dynamics Simulation[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2008, 38(18) | |
| Authors: | LIU Ru-liang JIA Ren-an DONG Qiu-xian |
| Abstract: | It gets the theory solution to the Keyfitz model and the Rogers model.Furthermore,it takes the Rogers model as an example,improves the population migration model and expands its applicable scope.Based on the population migration model,the system dynamics model is established,simulation to the population migration issue of Jiangxi Province is carried on,the tendency of the rusal population,the urban population and the urbanization rate in Jiangxi Province is obtained. |
| Keywords: | population migration model system dynamics simulation forecast |
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