Ligand and structure‐based models for the prediction of ligand‐receptor affinities and virtual screenings: Development and application to the β2‐adrenergic receptor

In this study, we evaluated the applicability of ligand‐based and structure‐based models to quantitative affinity predictions and virtual screenings for ligands of the β₂‐adrenergic receptor, a G protein‐coupled receptor (GPCR). We also devised and evaluated a number of consensus models obtained through partial least square regressions, to combine the strengths of the individual components. In all cases, the bioactive conformation of each ligand was derived from molecular docking at the crystal structure of the receptor. We identified the most effective models applicable to the different scenarios, in the presence or in the absence of a training set. For ranking the affinity of closely related analogs when a training set is available, a ligand‐based consensus model (LI‐CM) seems to be the best choice, while the structure‐based MM‐GBSA score seems the best alternative in the absence of a training set. For virtual screening purposes, the structure‐based MM‐GBSA score was found to be the method of choice. Consensus models consistently had performances superior or close to those of the best individual components, and were endowed with a significantly increased robustness. Given multiple models with no a priori knowledge of their predictive capabilities, constructing a consensus model ensures results very close to those that the best model alone would have yielded. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem 2010