| 基于数值模拟的QMU决策体系 |
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| 引用本文： | 马智博,孙宇涛,殷建伟,王秋菊,吕桂霞.基于数值模拟的QMU决策体系[J].计算物理,2016,33(6):661-670. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马智博 孙宇涛 殷建伟 王秋菊 吕桂霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京应用物理与计算数学研究所, 北京 100094 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(11371066)，装备预先研究(51319010207)，中国工程物理研究院科学技术发展基金(2013A0101004) |
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| 摘 要： | 裕度及不确定度量化方法（Quantification of Margin and Uncertainty，QMU）能够基于裕度及其不确定度信息对系统是否达到其指标要求进行科学的判断与决策.借助新的数值模拟不确定度量化方法，建立基于数值模拟预测及其不确定度的QMU决策技术体系.结合库存产品可靠性评估的实例，展示该体系的主要思想及其实现过程.
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| 关 键 词： | 裕度和不确定度量化 决策理论 可靠性认证与评估 数值模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-09-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-02-24 |
QMU Decision Based on Modeling & Simulation |
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| MA Zhibo,SUN Yutao,YIN Jianwei,WANG Qiuju,LV Guixia.QMU Decision Based on Modeling & Simulation[J].Chinese Journal of Computational Physics,2016,33(6):661-670. |
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| Authors: | MA Zhibo SUN Yutao YIN Jianwei WANG Qiuju LV Guixia |
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| Institution: | Institute of Applied Physics and computational Mathematics, Beijing 100094, China |
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| Abstract: | With margins and their uncertainties, QMU ( Quantification of Margin and Uncertainty) method can be used to make decisions on whether performances of a product reach demands or not. Recur to new methods of UQ ( Uncertainty Quantification) for M&S (Modeling & Simulation), QMU is actualized with input information directly from M&S and its uncertainties. With reliability assessment for a stockpiled product, main ideas and executing details of QMU decision are demonstrated. |
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| Keywords: | QMU decision theory reliability certification and assessment modeling & simulation |
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