Affective bases of likelihood judgments

Analyses of likelihood judgments for 515 events support the idea that the perceived likelihood of an event is partly a function of affective processes. Production of affective disturbances makes events seem unlikely. Event likelihoods also are influenced by specific kinds of people and behaviors which are involved in the events. Affective determination of likelihood is stronger when actors have institutionally‐clear identities rather than institutionally‐vague identities; indeed, affect accounts for more than half of the variance in likelihoods of events within clear institutional contexts.