Atmospheric teleconnections and flow regimes under future climate projections |
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Authors: | D Handorf and K Dethloff |
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Institution: | (1) Research Department Potsdam, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, Potsdam, Germany |
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Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of the low-frequency variability of the midtropospheric atmospheric flow of the Northern Hemisphere
during winter in terms of teleconnection patterns and atmospheric flow regimes. Teleconnection patterns have been determined
by two different methods, correlation analysis and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Flow regimes have been determined
by analysing the structure of a spherical probability density function in a low-dimensional state space spanned by the three
leading empirical orthogonal functions. To assess the ability of state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation
models (AOGCMs), multi-model simulations for present day conditions, performed for the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change have been analysed. The comparison with observations reveals, that state-of-the-art AOGCMs are able
to describe the low-frequency variability in terms of teleconnections and flow regimes realistically. The analyses of simulations
for future climate scenarios reveal changes in the strengths of the centers of action. Concerning climate regimes, two new
regimes appear and additionally, slight changes were found in the structure of some regimes. |
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