城市住房子市场价格演变：以杭州为例

研究住房子市场之间的房价差异和关联性，以及由此形成的城市住房子市场格局.通过构建特征价格模型，采用两期链式特征价格指数方法计算子市场的价格指数，并基于VAR模型，考察子市场房价之间的长期和短期关系.对杭州住房市场的实证研究显示，根据地理位置划分的东、南、西、北和市中心5个子市场中，城东和城北2个起步较晚的住房市场房价具有长期均衡关系，其余3个子市场相对独立.同时，城西房价变化是市中心房价变化的Granger因，城东和城南分别是城北房价变化的Granger因.区位的资源优势、领先开发优势，以及投资型购房流向，是子市场房价短期Granger关系的动因.总之，住房子市场的位置特征、居住历史、开发进程和家庭搬迁流向可以在一定程度上解释长期和短期的房价关联.

The evolution of housing submarket price intra-city: A case study of Hangzhou

The difference and relevance of prices among housing submarkets and the pattern of housing submarket system in a city are studied. Based on the hedonic model, the fixed quality price index for housing submarkets by the method of two-period-chained hedonic price index is constructed. Then the long-term and short-term relationship a- mong submarkets prices by VAR model is studied. The empirical study of Hangzhou housing market shows that, a- mong the five housing submarkets divided by geographical location, there is only one long-term equilibrium exist be- tween two lagged submarkets, i.e. East and North. The other three submarkets are relatively independent. House price dynamic in the West is Granger causes for that in city center, while that dynamic in East and South are Grang- er causes for that in North. The advantage of resource and leading development and the flow of investment purchase are the main reasons for the Granger relationships. In conclusion, the location character of submarket, habitat tradition, development course and the migration flow may explain the long-term and short-term relevance among housing submarkets in some degree.