| 封闭空间中新型冠状病毒肺炎传播模型:以日本“钻石公主号”邮轮为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 程欣欣,饶亚情,黄刚. 封闭空间中新型冠状病毒肺炎传播模型:以日本“钻石公主号”邮轮为例[J]. 数学物理学报(A辑), 2020, 0(2): 540-544 |
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| 作者姓名： | 程欣欣 饶亚情 黄刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学数学与物理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(11571326)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 该文以新型冠状病毒(SARS-Cov-2)在日本钻石公主号邮轮上传播为例,通过建立简单的易感者-感染者传染病模型,研究在封闭空间中新冠病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的传播机制.动力学分析和数值拟合预测了疾病传播过程和最终结果,讨论了不同隔离措施对疾病传播进程的影响,并给出防控策略建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 新型冠状病毒肺炎 传染病模型 |
COVID-19 Transmission Model in an Enclosed Space:A Case Study of Japan Diamond Princess Cruises |
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| Cheng Xinxin,Rao Yaqing,Huang Gang. COVID-19 Transmission Model in an Enclosed Space:A Case Study of Japan Diamond Princess Cruises[J]. Acta Mathematica Scientia, 2020, 0(2): 540-544 |
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| Authors: | Cheng Xinxin Rao Yaqing Huang Gang |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Mathematics and Physics,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,we study the transmission of a novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)on Japan Diamond Princess Cruises as an example.By establishing a simple susceptibleinfected epidemic model,the transmission mechanism of NCP in an enclosed space is established.Dynamic analysis and numerical fitting predict the disease transmission process and the final results,we estimate the infection rate and evaluate the effect of quarantine,and some suggestions for prevention and control strategies are given. |
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| Keywords: | Novel coronavirus pneumonia Epidemic model |
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