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基于改进加权Poisson CUSUM控制图的发病率监控研究
引用本文:雷骏峰,王芝珺,吴纯杰.基于改进加权Poisson CUSUM控制图的发病率监控研究[J].数理统计与管理,2020,39(1):116-128.
作者姓名:雷骏峰  王芝珺  吴纯杰
作者单位:上海财经大学统计与管理学院,上海,200433
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(11871324)
摘    要:现代社会医疗质量管理的重要性不言而喻,如何科学有效地开展发病率监控,具有重要的研究意义和实用价值。本文主要研究加权Poisson CUSUM控制图的改进及其在发病率监控上的应用。通过引入"标准化"处理思想,即将对数似然比统计量除以对应样本容量,本文提出"标准化"对数似然比加权Poisson CUSUM控制图,用以提高对发病率的监控水平。通过设定合适的人口模型,模拟计算验证了本文设计的模型能够有效提高监控效果,且对于不同人口模型和不同加权函数均有显著优势。最后,基于美国新墨西哥州男性甲状腺癌患病数据开展的实证检验也印证了以上结论。

关 键 词:加权  Poisson  CUSUM  标准化  发病率监控

Advanced Weighted Poisson CUSUM Chart for Monitoring Incidence Rate
LEI Jun-feng,WANG Zhi-jun,WU Chun-jie.Advanced Weighted Poisson CUSUM Chart for Monitoring Incidence Rate[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2020,39(1):116-128.
Authors:LEI Jun-feng  WANG Zhi-jun  WU Chun-jie
Institution:(School of Statistics and Management,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
Abstract:In modern society,the importance of medical quality management is self-evident.It is of great research significance and practical value to detect the incidence rate scientifically and effectively.This paper mainly concentrates on the advancement of weighted Poisson CUSUM chart and its performance on the detection of incidence rate.By introducing the idea of "standardization",that is dividing log-likelihood ratio statistic by the corresponding sample size,we propose "standardized" weighted loglikelihood ratio Poisson CUSUM chart to improve the performance of incidence rate detection.A suitable population model is constructed in this paper and the simulation result shows that the scheme designed performs well and has significant advantages for different population models and various weighted functions.Furthermore,a real-world example based on data from men with thyroid cancer in New Mexico US is used to illustrate the proposed scheme.
Keywords:weighted Poisson CUSUM  standardization  incidence rate detection
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