基于改进P-S模型工程抢修抢建风险预警方法

为适应风险预警“风险可能性低、安全满意度高”的心理特征与期望,提出了一种基于改进可能满意度的震后工程抢修抢建风险预警方法。在介绍可能满意度方法原理基础上,建立了震后工程抢修抢建风险预警模式,划分预警等级,确定多层次风险预警等级的可能度、满意度函数,分析风险可能度与满意度的互逆变化特征,确定风险预警可能满意度的并合形式化表达,运用数据包络分析方法改进风险预警的可能满意度模型,确定震后工程抢修抢建风险预警的相对可能满意度模型。模型应用于边坡工程抢修作业进程中整体安全风险预警案例,结果表明方法合理、可行,具有较好的预警能力。

Risk early warning method to repair and construct operations engineering based on improved P S model

To the mental characteristics about “Lower risk possibility, Higher safety satisfaction”, a risk early warning method was proposed to repair and construct operations for earthquake damaged engineering with the improved P S model. Based on the Possibility satisfaction principle, the risk early warning method was erected, with its early warning grade plotted out, and its possibility function and satisfactory function presented in the corresponding early warning layer. As opposite changing characteristic was analyzed in the possibility and satisfactory functions, the formal expression was given in the merging process of the early warning possibility satisfaction. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) improved the early warning P S model, and the relative early warning possibility satisfaction model was established to repair and construct operations for earthquake damaged engineering. The model was applied into the whole risk early warning case in the repairing process on rock slope, whose outcome indicated the rationality and feasibility, revealing its better early warning ability.