| 销售量预测的REM-GM(1,1)模型及群预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙庆文,朱显英. 销售量预测的REM-GM(1,1)模型及群预测方法研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2011, 41(2) |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙庆文 朱显英 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北经贸大学工商管理学院,河北,石家庄,050061 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省教育厅社科研究2010年度基金(SD2010005) |
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| 摘 要： | 库存管理是商业企业经营管理的重要组成部分,其管理应以销售出库量为主要依据,而客户需求的不确定性一直是困扰管理者的首要难题.提出在灰色GM(1,1)模型的基础上,结合残差时刻的灰灾变预测,建立了REM-GM(1,1)模型,并采用群预测的方法,对商业企业中的销售出库量进行了预测.经实证结果检验,表明该模型对商业企业的销售出库量的预测不论是单步预测还是多步远期预测,其预测精度与传统GM模型相比均有较大提高,且误差的波动较为稳定,其预测的结果是令人满意的.
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| 关 键 词： | 销售出库量 群预测 GM(1,1) REM-GM(1,1) 灰灾变预测 |
The Study of REM-GM(1,1) Model on Sales Forecast and Cluster Predication Method |
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| SUN Qing-wen,ZHU Xian-ying. The Study of REM-GM(1,1) Model on Sales Forecast and Cluster Predication Method[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2011, 41(2) |
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| Authors: | SUN Qing-wen ZHU Xian-ying |
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| Affiliation: | SUN Qing-wen,ZHU Xian-ying (School of Business Administration,Hebei university of economics & business number47,xuefu road,shijiazhuang city,Hebei 050061,China) |
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| Abstract: | Inventory management is an important part of the operation management of commerce and enterprises,which is based on the amount of sales un-house,but the uncertainty of customer demands is the foremost problem perplexing managers.Based on GM(1,1) model and combining calamity grey prediction at residual hour,this paper establishes a REM-GM(1,1) model and with the aid of cluster predication method successfully forecasts the amount of sales un-house of commerce and enterprises.The empirical studies observe that... |
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| Keywords: | the amount of sales un-house cluster predication GM(1 1) REM-GM(1 calamity grey prediction |
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