汇率变动对进出口影响的实证分析

本文研究了汇率变动对中国进出口的影响,在间接标价法下对论文中所用到的汇率贬值改善国际收支的三个必要条件给出了结论和证明(弹性法);在经济理论及经验研究的基础上,建立了论文中所需要的所有模型并且根据模型对相关经济问题利用现代计量经济学方法进行了实证研究.通过实证研究我们得到的结论是:我国满足汇率贬值改善国际收支的必要条件;出口增加有助于GDP的增长,进口增加对GDP的影响是反向的且随着进口增加这种影响逐渐减弱最终趋于零.

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE ON CHINESE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS

In the paper we research the Impact of exchange rate change on Chinese imports and exports,This thesis has supplied the conclusion and identification with three essential terms of the exchange rate depreciation improving international revenue and expenditure used under the law indirectly(elasticity approach).On the basis of ecomic theory and experience research,it has set up all models needed in the thesis and carried on the positive research on relevant economic problems according to these models by utilizing the modern econometrics method.Through the real diagnosis,the conclusions we obtain are as follows: Our country meets the essential conditions of exchange rate depreciation improving international revenue and expenditure;Export increases will contribute to the growth of GDP,while import increases' influence is reverse.Especially this kind of influence will weaken with constant import increases and finally tend to the zero.