一类传染病模型的优化预控制设计分析

首先给出了牲畜(家禽)的传染病(禽流感、口蹄疫)的控制策略模型,控制措施包括两个方面:一,除掉那些已经被确诊的被传染的种群.二,对那些认为处于疫区的,可能被传染的种群采取预控制(隔离、提前宰杀).因为预控制并不能辨别出哪些群体是真正的接触者,所以这种控制措施将导致把感染者和健康的一并除掉,这就产生了一个矛盾:控制强度的加大能够减少疾病的传播率,但同时增加了无辜者被宰杀的群体的数量,并且证明了一个优化的控制策略,它能够减少由于过多捕杀带来的损失.

Sub-Optimal Pre-control of Epidemiological Models

The paper present a model of a control program for a disease outbreak in a population of livestock holdings.Control is achieved by culling of livestock on holdings deemed to be at enhanced risk of infection.Because the pre emptive control program cannot directly identify exposed holdings,its implementation will result in the removal of both infected and uninfected holdings.This leads to a fundamental trade off: increased levels of control produce a greater reduction in transmission by removing more exposed holdings,but increase the number of uninfected holdings culled.We derive an expression for the total number of holdings culled during the course of an outbreak and demonstrate that there is an optimal control policy,which minimizes this loss.