POSSIBLE LONG-TERM CHANGES IN BIOLOGICALLY ACTIVE ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION REACHING THE GROUND

Abstract— Three scenarios for long-term changes in atmospheric ozone over the time period 1960 to 2030 lead to different projections for the ultraviolet radiation flux at the earth's surface. Biologically effective fluxes for damage to DNA and generalized damage to plants vary by a factor of 10 or more with latitude and season irrespective of possible changes in ozone. The natural latitudinal gradient in radiation corresponds to spatial changes in biologically effective fluxes which are large compared to temporal changes expected from trends in ozone over the time period analyzed. In an extreme scenario of ozone change, based on an assumed increase in chlorofluorocarbon release rates of 3% per year after 1980, the annually integrated effective flux for damage to DNA increases by 13.5% at latitude 40°N between 1960 and 2030. With chlorofluorocarbon release rates held fixed at their 1980 values, the corresponding radiation increase is only 2.3%. In a scenario where atmospheric chlorine remains fixed at its 1960 value, trends in atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide imply a decrease in biologically effective flux at 40°N of 5.3% between 1960 and 2030.