A fully subjective approach to modelling inspection maintenance |
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| Institution: | 1. Collaborative Autonomic Computing Laboratory, School of Computer Science, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, China;2. The Israel Electric Corporation, Haifa, Israel;3. University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa;4. ITMO University, St. Petersburg, Russia;1. Collaborative Autonomic Computing laboratory, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China;2. The Israel Electric Corporation, P. O. Box 10, Haifa 31000, Israel;3. University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa;4. ITMO University, St. Petersburg, Russia;1. Collaborative Autonomic Computing Laboratory, School of Computer Science, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, PR China;2. The Israel Electric Corporation, Haifa, Israel;3. University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa;4. ITMO University, 49 Kronverkskiy pr., St. Petersburg 197101, Russia |
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| Abstract: | The fully subjective, or fully Bayesian approach discussed in this paper provides straightforward means of presenting uncertainty related to future events to decision makers. This approach is described in the context of an inspection maintenance decision problem, and is contrasted with the classical probabilistic approach that assumes the existence of true probabilities and probability distributions which have to be estimated. Key features of the fully subjective approach are discussed, including integration of engineering judgements, uncertainty treatment and type of performance measures to be used. An example related to the problem of identifying “optimal” inspection intervals for an extrusion press is used to illustrate the principles described. |
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