Numerical errors and chaotic behavior in docking simulations

This work examines the sensitivity of docking programs to tiny changes in ligand input files. The results show that nearly identical ligand input structures can produce dramatically different top-scoring docked poses. Even changing the atom order in a ligand input file can produce significantly different poses and scores. In well-behaved cases the docking variations are small and follow a normal distribution around a central pose and score, but in many cases the variations are large and reflect wildly different top scores and binding modes. The docking variations are characterized by statistical methods, and the sensitivity of high-throughput and more precise docking methods are compared. The results demonstrate that part of docking variation is due to numerical sensitivity and potentially chaotic effects in current docking algorithms and not solely due to incomplete ligand conformation and pose searching. These results have major implications for the way docking is currently used for pose prediction, ranking, and virtual screening.