最大地面风速的预测研究

为了解决航天发射场极值风速的预测问题，本文提出了用于极值风速预测的一种新方法－－相关系数法，并利用此方法对三种典型的概率分布进行了对比研究，在对比过程中，检验了三组极值风速，假设每组检验样本内的极值风速数据是统计独立的，于是极值风速就可以描述为随机过程，研究表明最适于描述极值风速的概率分布是reverse Weibull分布，与peak-over-threshold法所得出的结论具有良好的一致性。

Prediction for Maximum Ground Wind Speed

A new method-the correlation coefficient method for the prediction of extreme wind speeds was presented, and a comparative study of three types of probabilit y distribution by this new method was given also. Three sets of maximum annual wind speeds were examined in the study. In accordance with the standard current approach, it is assumed that the data represent statistically independent samp les from an extreme value probanbility distribution, and so extreme wind speeds can be modeled as a stochastic process. The study reveals that the reverse We ibull distribution is the most appropriate for describing extreme wind speeds, a nd shows a good agreement with the peaks over threshold approach.