Swing Analysis and Electoral Forecasting |
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Authors: | M. Hayes |
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Affiliation: | 1.Division of Economic Studies,University of Sheffield, |
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Abstract: | This paper examines the procedure by which votes are converted into seats at U.K. General Elections. In particular it seeks to answer these questions. - i)
What is the meaning of swing when more than two parties fight an election? - ii)
How can the distribution of seats at an election be determined from a prediction of national swing? - iii)
How can swing analysis be extended to help determine an electoral strategy for political parties? - iv)
What explanation can be provided for the swing in Scotland? - v)
What explanation can be provided for variations in the English swing?
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