Swing Analysis and Electoral Forecasting

This paper examines the procedure by which votes are converted into seats at U.K. General Elections. In particular it seeks to answer these questions.

1. i)
   What is the meaning of swing when more than two parties fight an election?
    
2. ii)
   How can the distribution of seats at an election be determined from a prediction of national swing?
    
3. iii)
   How can swing analysis be extended to help determine an electoral strategy for political parties?
    
4. iv)
   What explanation can be provided for the swing in Scotland?
    
5. v)
   What explanation can be provided for variations in the English swing?