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Temperature fluctuations superimposed on background temperature change
Institution:1. Université Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, UR ETNA, 2 rue de la Papeterie, BP76, F-38402 Saint-Martin-d''Hères, France;2. GEODE UMR 5602, CNRS/UT2J, Maison de la Recherche, 5 allée Antonio Machado, 31058 Toulouse, France;1. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;2. The Key Laboratory of Mountain Environment Evolution and Regulation, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610014, China;3. University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;1. Department of Electrical Engineering, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Tehran, P.O. Box 11365-4435, Iran;2. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, P.O. Box 14588-89694, Iran;1. Wageningen IMARES, Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies, P.O. Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands;2. Aquaculture and Fisheries Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands
Abstract:Proxy data allows the temperature of the Earth to be mapped over long periods of time. In this work the temperature fluctuations for over 200 proxy data sets were examined and from this set 50 sets were analyzed to test for periodic and quasi-periodic fluctuations in the data sets. Temperature reconstructions over 4 different time scales were analyzed to see if patterns emerged. Data were put into four time intervals; 4,000 years, 14,000 years, 1,000,000 years, and 3,000,000 years and analyzed with a goal to understanding periodic and quasi-periodic patterns in global temperature change superimposed on a “background” average temperature change. Quasi-periodic signatures were identified that predate the Industrial Revolution, during much of which direct data on temperature are not available. These data indicate that Earth temperatures have undergone a number of periodic and quasi-periodic intervals that contain both global warming and global cooling cycles. The fluctuations are superimposed on a background of temperature change that has a declining slope during the two periods, pre-ice age and post ice age with a transition about 12,000 BCE. The data are divided into “events” that span the time periods 3,000,000 BCE to “0” CE, 1,000,000 BCE to “0” CE, 12,000 BCE to 2,000 CE and 2,000 BCE to 2,000 CE. An equation using a quasi-periodic (frequency modulated sine waves) patterns was developed to analyze the date sets for quasi-periodic patterns. “Periodicities” which show reasonable agreement with the predictions of Milankovitch and other investigators were found in the data sets.
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