浙江梅汛期分片暴雨前期气象因子场的相关分析

利用1990～1999年共10年浙江及其邻近地区梅汛期降水113个典型个例的多要素客观分析场和物理量诊断场与不同区域日降水量场分别进行相关分析,计算从过程发生前24 h到发生期间4个不同时刻的动力热力因子与分片日降水量之间的相关系数,重点揭示浙北梅汛期暴雨前期气象信号及其时间演变特征,并分析比较浙北与浙南区域暴雨前期信号的异同,为改进梅汛期暴雨分片预报提供物理依据.

Correlation analysis of regional heavy rainfall in Zhejiang Province during Meiyu period and its meteorological fields

By using the data of 113 cases during the Meiyu period from 1990 to 1999, the correlation analysis was conducted to examine the probable connections between regional average daily rainfall in different areas of Zhejiang Province and the analysis fields of various dynamic and thermal variables leading the rainfall -24, -12, 0 and 12 hour respectively. First, the evolutions of significant features which favor the heavy rainfall in northern Zhejiang Province were revealed, then the prophase signatures of regional heavy rainfall in northern and southern Zhejiang Province were compared, mainly to show their differences. The research results will help us to improve the short range forecast of heavy rainfall in different areas of Zhejiang Province.