Optimization model to start harvesting in stochastic aquaculture system

Establishment of cost‐effective management strategy of aquaculture is one of the most important issues in fishery science, which can be addressed with bio‐economic mathematical modeling. This paper deals with the aforementioned issue using a stochastic process model for aquacultured non‐renewable fishery resources from the viewpoint of an optimal stopping (timing) problem. The goal of operating the model is to find the optimal criteria to start harvesting the resources under stochastic environment, which turns out to be determined from the Bellman equation (BE). The BE has a separation of variables type structure and can be simplified to a reduced BE with a fewer degrees of freedom. Dependence of solutions to the original and reduced BEs on parameters and independent variables is analyzed from both analytical and numerical standpoints. Implications of the analysis results to management of aquaculture systems are presented as well. Numerical simulation focusing on aquacultured Plecoglossus altivelis in Japan validates the mathematical analysis results. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.