基于改进概率积分法的倾斜条带状工作面开采沉陷预计研究

常规概率积分法适用于水平和近水平煤层开采沉陷预计，对倾斜煤层的开采沉陷预计存在较大误差，为此，借鉴变步长数值积分的思想，提出倾斜条带状工作面开采沉陷预计的改进概率积分法，设计了新的计算模型；具体做法是：将工作面在埋深方向用二分法划分为多个子工作面，从而将倾斜工作面的开采沉陷预计转化为多个水平子工作面的开采沉陷预计；对细分级数f ，进行 f轮计算；对第i(i=1,2,...,f-1) 轮计算，工作面被等分为2ⁱ 个子工作面，进行 2ⁱ次迭代计算；第 i轮迭代计算后，再将每个子工作面在深度方向进行二分，继而进行下轮迭代计算，重复进行，直到前后两轮计算结果差值的均值和方差均在目标范围内。证明了该算法的收敛性；算法分析表及应用实例明，该方法消除了倾角和平均深度对倾斜煤层开采沉陷的误差，计算模型更加科学，计算结果更可信，适用于任意倾斜条带状煤层和非煤地下矿较规整采场开采沉陷预计，以及自然崩落法矿岩接触面模拟。

Study on mining subsidence prediction of tilt banded face based on advanced probability integral method

Reference variable step numerical integration of ideas, put forward a new method for prediction of tilt banded Face mining subsidence, which would be: In the depth direction the seam was divided into multiple sub-seams with a dichotomy, which transform tilt coal mining subsidence into a plurality of horizontal sub-coal mining subsidence; For subdivision factor f, there are f-round calculations,For the i-th round i(i=1,2,...,f-1)calculation,face was divided into sub-faces, calculated for iterations, for each iteration,the result DTM was entered as original DTM.After the i-th round calculation, each sub-face was sub-divided into two, and then take the next round iteration calculation. Compare the results of two rounds calculation.The process is repeated until the mean and variance of results difference are within the target range. Algorithm analysis shows this method eliminates errors caused by inclination and an average depth,thus the calculation model is more scientific and results are more reliable.