| 我国农村劳动力转移数量测算及未来趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 何建新. 我国农村劳动力转移数量测算及未来趋势预测[J]. 河南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 41(4): 19-22 |
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| 作者姓名： | 何建新 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉,430070 |
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| 摘 要： | 合理采用农村劳动力转移数量测算方法,测算了我国1991-2009年农村劳动力转移数量,对期间所呈现的阶段变化特征进行了分析.此外,还利用GM(1,1)模型对我国2010-2020年农村劳动力转移数量进行了预测,结果表明,在未来10年内,我国农村劳动力转移数量还将保持逐年增长,至2020年将达到26 707.26万人,较2009年增长55.57%.
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| 关 键 词： | 农村 劳动力转移 数量测算 GM(1,1)模型 |
Quantity Measurement and Forecast of the Future Trends on Rural Labor Force Transfer in China |
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| HE Jianxin. Quantity Measurement and Forecast of the Future Trends on Rural Labor Force Transfer in China[J]. Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science), 2013, 41(4): 19-22 |
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| Authors: | HE Jianxin |
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| Affiliation: | HE Jianxin(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper reasonably adopts quantity measurement method of rural labor force transfer and calculates the quantity of rural labor transfer in China during 1991-2009,and analyzes phasic variation characteristics presenting during this period.In addition,the quantity of rural labor transfer in china is forecasted with the GM(1,1)model in 2010-2020in this paper.The results show that,in the next 10years,the number of China’s rural labor force transfer will still keep increasing year by year;it will reach 26 707.26million in 2020,increases by 55.57%than that of in 2009. |
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| Keywords: | rural area labor force transfer quantity measurement GM(1,1) model |
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