基于MaxEnt模型的广东省红豆属植物潜在适生区研究

为了解气候变化情景下广东省红豆属(Ormosia)潜在适生区的变化，探究影响红豆属植物潜在适生区的主导环境因子，本研究基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS 10.8软件，利用17种红豆属植物的分布数据及22个环境变量数据，结合未来共享社会经济路径(SSP126、SSP585)的气候情景，分别预测红豆属植物在当前和未来气候场景下的潜在适生区分布情况。结果表明：(1)适生区预测模型的评价效果良好，受试者工作特征曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, ROC曲线)下面积(AUC平均值)均为0.8-1.0。(2)在当前气候情景下，大面积(占广东省面积的40%-100%)适生的红豆属植物有茸荚红豆(Ormosia pachycarpa)等3种；中等面积(占20%-40%)适生的有薄毛茸荚红豆(O.pachycarpa var.tenuis)等6种；小面积(占5%-20%)适生的有韧荚红豆(O.indurata)等4种；极小面积(占0%-5%)适生的有凹叶红豆(O.emarginata)等4种。其中面积占比最大的是茸荚红豆，总适生面积为15.228 8...

Study on the Potential Suitable Area of Ormosia in Guangdong Province Based on the MaxEnt Model

In order to understand the changes in the potential suitable areas of Ormosia in Guangdong Province under climate change scenarios and explore the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential suitable areas of Ormosia,based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS 10.8 software,this study used the distribution data of 17 species of Ormosia plants and the data of 22 environmental variables,combined with the climate scenarios of social and economic paths (SSP126,SSP585) to predict the distribution of potential suitable areas of Ormosia plants in the current and future climate scenarios.The results showed that:(1) The evaluation effect of the prediction model of the suitable area was good,and the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC curve) (average AUC values) were all in the range of 0.8-1.0.(2) Under the current climate scenario,Ormosia pachycarpa and other 3 species were suitable for growing in large area (accounting for 40%-100% of the area of Guangdong Province).6 species,including O.pachycarpa var.tenuis,were suitable for medium area (20%-40%).4 species,including O.indurata,were suitable for small area (5%-20%).4 species,such as O.emarginata,were suitable for very small area (0%-5%).Among them,the highest percentage of suitable area is O.pachycarpa,with a total area of 1 522 288 km²,accounting for 84.75%; the smallest suitable area is O.boluoensis,with a total area of 337 km²,accounting for 0.19%.(3) Rainfall and altitude play a leading role in the distribution of Ormosia plants.The dominant factors of the suitable area of 12 species of Ormosia plants were climatic factors (9 rainfall factors,3 temperature factors),and the dominant factors of the remaining 5 species were altitude factors (5 altitude factors).(4) Under the future climate scenarios (SSP126,SSP585),the potential suitable area of 4 Ormosia species would increase,including O.emarginata etc.,with an increase of 0.79%-42.43%.The potential suitable area of 13 Ormosia species would decrease,including O.boluoensis etc.,with a decrease of 1.30%-78.56%.Climate warming has a certain negative impact on the potential distribution area of Ormosia species.Among the 17 species of Ormosia,the suitable area of 13 species will be reduced,especially for several narrowly distributed species (O.boluoensis,O.ferruginea,O.microphylla,O.purpureiflora,and O.sericeolucida).They should be the priority groups of in-situ conservation and ex-situ conservation of Ormosia species.