Decision resource management and practical intervention in conflicts — a model and its implications

One of the major problems for O.R. lies in providing decision-making assistance in complex conflicts. Too often in the past the approach has been concentrated on providing technical solutions to well-defined hypothetical problems, rather than on attempting to tackle the decision-makers' real problems of trying to make sense of the complex situations in which they find themselves. The paper is intended to contribute towards practical understanding by outlining a theory which explains the ways in which decision-makers' views of the environment are affected by conflicts, particularly under conditions of crisis.The theory attempts to integrate a series of pragmatic hypotheses derived from International Relations, by extending concepts originating in cognitive psychology. The theory's crucial concept is that of “resources” treated by the authors as the number of units of information processed over a given time period. By considering the impact of resources on the conscious analysis of problems a set of postulates is arrived at, which are applicable to a wide variety of decision-making situations.In particular the principle of “inappropriate resource saving” is proposed which suggests that resource considerations imply that unsuitable oversimplistic approaches are likely to dominate decision-making in precisely the situations where the necessity of a complex sophisticated approach is greatest.Finally the implications of the theory for decision-making in general, and for understanding other parties in conflicts, in particular, are discussed. The importance is stressed of; forward contingency planning (putting time in the bank), conscious resource management, and forming multiple models of complex situations.