基于役龄和健康指数的可加故障率模型研究

针对传统的可加故障率模型(AHM)在描述设备状态对故障率的影响时存在缺陷,提出采用健康指数作为表征设备状态的变量,建立起以役龄和健康指数作为变量的AHM模型,基于该模型的构建原理提出模型解法,共三步:首先,求解基准故障率函数时,运用基于LS-SVM的EMD改进算法获取故障率演变曲线,用遗传算法优化该曲线;然后,求解协变量函数时,运用了灰色理论的NGDM模型;最后,对基准故障率函数和协变量函数进行联合优化。通过仿真数据验证,该方法的拟合误差小于2%,预测误差小于3%。结合真实案例探讨了模型适用性的初步检验方法,最终对模型的使用方法进行了论述。

Additive Hazard Model Based on Equipment Age and Health Index

Due to existing defects of traditional additive hazard model (AHM) in describing the influence of equipment condition to failure rate, an AHM with equipment age and health index(HI) as variables was established using HI to describe the equipment condition. The process of model solving ,which is based on the essence of the model, is also presented through three steps: Firstly, to solve the baseline hazard function, the failure rate development curve is acquired using improved EMD algorithm which is based on LS-SVM, then the curve is optimized with Genetic Algorithm; secondly, the NGDM model in Grey Theory is used to solve the covariate function; thirdly, joint optimization of the baseline hazard function and the covariate function is carried out. Simulation results have verified that the fitting error is less than 2% while the prediction error is less than 3%. The author conducts preliminary test of the applicability of AHM model with the failure rate sequence of a certain relay protection device using the model solving process and expounds the usage method of AHM model in the end.