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A nonparametric estimation of the infection curve |
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| Authors: | LIN HuaZhen YIP Paul S.F. & HUGGINS Richard M. School of Statistics Southwestern University of Finance Economics Chengdu China Social Work Social Administration University of Hong Kong Hong Kong |
| Affiliation: | LIN HuaZhen 1,YIP Paul S.F.2 & HUGGINS Richard M.3 1 School of Statistics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China,2 Social Work and Social Administration,University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,3 Department of Mathematics and Statistics,The University of Melbourne,Melbourne,Australia |
| Abstract: | Predicting the future course of an epidemic depends on being able to estimate the current numbers of infected individuals.However,while back-projection techniques allow reliable estimation of the numbers of infected individuals in the more distant past,they are less reliable in the recent past.We propose two new nonparametric methods to estimate the unobserved numbers of infected individuals in the recent past in an epidemic.The proposed methods are noniterative,easily computed and asymptotically normal wit... |
| Keywords: | epidemic back-projection nonparametric method infection curve |
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