PERT在工程项目施工进度风险分析中的应用

提出了在计划评审技术基础上的工程项目施工进度风险评价指标体系的构建思路,即运用专家打分法或者专家函询法对每道工序完成的最乐观时间、最悲观时间以及最有可能时间进行估计,然后假定每项工作都是持续的,根据计划评审技术的基本理论计算出每道工期期望持续时间,以及整个工程的期望工期、完工概率,最后进行实例分析。

The Appliaction of PERT in the Risk Analysis of the Project's Contruction Schedule

This paper proposes an approach of project construction schedule risk assessment index system based on program evaluation and review technique, which applies expert scoring method or expert requiring method to estimate the optimistic time, pessimistic time and the most likely time of each working schedule's completion time. Then assume that each working schedule is continuous and calculate the expected duration of each construction period based on the basic theory of plan review technique. Meanwhile, calculate the expected duration of whole project and project completion probability. Finally, the example is analyzed.