中国城市人口死亡率的预测

死亡率是随时间变动的具有不确定性的变量,基本养老保险的养老金给付必须考虑动态死亡率的影响,因此需要对中国城市人口的未来死亡率变动进行预测。针对部分年的中国城市分性别人口死亡率数据缺失的实际状况,本文运用死亡人数服从Poisson分布的Lee-Carter模型进行了预测,结果表明该模型的拟合较好。由上述预测得出,随时间的延续,中国城市人口的预期寿命将明显增加,为基本养老保险的支付带来严重的风险,该风险导致基本养老保险个人账户的收入远不足以支付未来的养老金,必须引起重视。本文就如何规避这一风险给出了一些政策建议。

Mortality Projection of Chinese Urban Population

Mortality rate evolves dynamically with uncertainty.The payment of Chinese basic Pension Plan should account for the influence of dynamic mortality,so the mortality projection of Chinese urban population is needed.For some of mortality data of Chinese urban population is missed,Lee-Carter model with the number of deaths having Poisson distribution is applied to project the mortality of Chinese urban population and fits well.The results demonstrate that the mortality will improve and life expectancy will increase remarkably,which lead to the heavy risk of payment faced by Chinese Basic Pension Plan that the income of individual account cannot pay off individual pension in the future.At last,we give some policy suggestions about how to hedge the risk.