基于VAR和DAG的中国经济增长实证研究

本文利用近年来新发展的DAG方法对我国的GDP、投资、消费和出口的因果关系进行研究.与以前的研究方法相比较,DAG方法可为宏观经济变量的结构VAR模型的过度识别提供限制,同时能给出经济变量的同期和动态因果关系.实证研究表明,投资和消费既是我国GDP增长的同期原因,又是经济增长的短期和长期原因,而且实证结论不支持我国的出口导向型经济增长假设.

Chinese Economic Growth: Evidence from VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs

This paper explores the causal relationship among GDP growth,capital information,consumption and real exports in China by recently developed directed acyclic graphs.In contrast to prior analyses,DAG(directed acyclic graph)techniques can be used to provide over-identifying restrictions on innovations from structural vector autoregressive models and to examine both contemporaneous and dynamic causal structures of above-mentioned variables.Empirical studies show that capital information and consumption cause GDP growth.Furthermore,they do not support the export-ed growth in China.