| 一种关于汽车整车不确定需求的组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱广宇,雷黎,毕军,李宝文. 一种关于汽车整车不确定需求的组合预测模型[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2007, 37(8): 27-31 |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱广宇 雷黎 毕军 李宝文 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学,交通运输学院系统工程与控制研究所,北京,100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京交通大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种针对汽车生产企业整车不确定需求的组合预测模型,即利用神经网络拟合数据基本变化趋势,然后对企业产品的市场占有率进行评价,以调节需求变化趋势.应用实例,对模型进行了验证,说明该模型能够较好地诠释企业产品需求信息,具有较好的预测能力.
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 需求分析 市场占有率 RBF网络 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-02-04 |
A Kind of Combined Forecasting Model Used for the Analysis of Uncertain Demand of Automobile |
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| ZHU Guang-yu,LEI Li,BI Jun,LI Bao-wen. A Kind of Combined Forecasting Model Used for the Analysis of Uncertain Demand of Automobile[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2007, 37(8): 27-31 |
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| Authors: | ZHU Guang-yu LEI Li BI Jun LI Bao-wen |
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| Abstract: | A combination forecasting model was proposed in this article concerning about the uncertain demand of automobile.The main trend of demand changing was calculated through the RBF ANN model,and some adjustment was made through the market sharing-rate evaluation model.The efficiency of this model was proved,which include the good precise of model and the complete-contain information,through an application case. |
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| Keywords: | combined forecasting demand analysis market sharing-rate RBF network |
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