| 我国未来能源投资需求预测及特点分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张跃军,王兆华.我国未来能源投资需求预测及特点分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张跃军 王兆华 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京理工大学,管理与经济学院,北京,100081;北京理工大学,能源与环境政策研究中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，教育部人文社会科学研究项目基金，高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金，北京理工大学优秀青年教师资助计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 持续的能源投资是经济持续发展的必要保障.鉴于我国能源投资的复杂性,基于系统动力学和成本预测方法,预测了我国2006-2050年期间的能源投资需求,分析了各能源品种的投资需求特点及不确定性因素.结果发现,我国能源投资将保持持续增长态势,但能源投资占GDP的比重不断下挫.而且,电力投资将一直占据我国能源投资的主导地位.
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| 关 键 词： | 能源投资 投资需求 预测 不确定性 |
China's Future Energy Investment Demand Projection and Its Features |
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| ZHANG Yue-jun,WANG Zhao-hua.China's Future Energy Investment Demand Projection and Its Features[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(6). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yue-jun WANG Zhao-hua |
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| Abstract: | Sustainable investment to energy industry proves the essential basis for sustainable economic development.This paper,using the system dynamics approach and cost prediction method,projects China's energy investment demand during 2006-2050,explores the energy investment features of every energy source,as well as the uncertainties for China's future energy investment.The results indicate that China's energy investment may see a continuous increase in the projecting period and the ratio of energy investment to GDP may gradually decline.Additionally,the investment of power industry always dominates the China's energy investment. |
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| Keywords: | energy investment investment demand forecasting uncertainty |
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