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| 基于改进灰色马尔科夫模型的年降水量预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 张鑫,任永泰,王福林,付强.基于改进灰色马尔科夫模型的年降水量预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(11). |
| 作者姓名： | 张鑫 任永泰 王福林 付强 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨,150030 2. 东北农业大学理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨,150030 3. 东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,黑龙江哈尔滨,150030 |
| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省青年基金"哈尔滨市及城近郊区地下水水位水质预警研究" |
| 摘 要： | 通过结合灰色预测和马尔科夫理论的特点,利用新信息优先的思想,提出一种改进的灰色马尔科夫预测模型,首先对序列进行滑动平均处理,然后用无偏GM(1,1)模型拟合系统的发展变化趋势,并以此为基础进行马尔科夫预测,在每一步预测中,不断推陈出新,更新原始数据.实验结果表明,与一般的灰色预测模型相比,其预测准确度尤其是中长期预测准确度得到了较大提高. |
| 关 键 词： | 无偏GM(1 1) 滑动平均 马尔科夫 新陈代谢 降水量 |
Prediction of Annual Precipitation Based on Improved Grey Markov Model |
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| ZHANG Xin,REN Yong-tai,WANG Fu-lin,FU Qiang.Prediction of Annual Precipitation Based on Improved Grey Markov Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(11). | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Xin REN Yong-tai WANG Fu-lin FU Qiang |
| Institution: | ZHANG Xin~1,REN Yong-tai~2,WANG Fu-lin~1,FU Qiang~3 (1.College of Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China) (2.College of Science,China) (3.College of Water Conservancy and Building Engineering,China) |
| Abstract: | By combining the advantages of both grey prediction and Markov theory,an improved grey-Markov model is established,first the sequence is moved average,and then unbiased grey-Markov model is established to imitate the development tendency of the forecast system while Markov prediction is used to forecast the fluctuation along the tendency. The newest data is gradually added while the oldest one is removed from original data sequence. Experiment results show that the prediction accuracy has been improved quit... |
| Keywords: | unbiased GM(1 1) moving average Markov metabolizing model annual precipitation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |