| 甲型H1N1流感的微分流行病模型与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨颖惠,李维德,朱凌峰. 甲型H1N1流感的微分流行病模型与分析[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2011, 41(11) |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨颖惠 李维德 朱凌峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学数学与统计学院,甘肃兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金,国家科技支撑计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 从经典的SIR模型入手,在考虑隔离、治愈后的免疫能力、迁移及防控因子等因素后,建立了适合于甲型H1N1流感的微分方程模型,对其平衡态进行了稳定性分析.另外,考虑到"贫"数据信息的特点,在简化模型后,结合国内H1N1流感数据进行模型的求解和预测,结果表明拟合效果非常好.可以看到,起初确诊人数急剧上升,在11月左右达到最大值,随后有减缓趋势,大约在80天后灭亡.
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| 关 键 词： | 甲型H1N1流感 SIR模型 稳定性分析 预测 |
The Modeling and Analysis of H1N1 Influenza |
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| YANG Ying-hui,LI Wei-de,ZHU Ling-feng. The Modeling and Analysis of H1N1 Influenza[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2011, 41(11) |
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| Authors: | YANG Ying-hui LI Wei-de ZHU Ling-feng |
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| Affiliation: | YANG Ying-hui,LI Wei-de,ZHU Ling-feng (School of Mathematics and Statistics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistics of H1N1 flu in China,a suitable differential equation of H1N1 model is established,which extended from the classical SIR model.The mortality rate of infection,the immunity rate after cure,prevention and control factors are all integrated in the model.Then we have conducted a stability analysis of the model.In addition,by simplifying the model the values of parameters are estimated and the equation is solved.The error map of residues is also given.We can see that the number of initial... |
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| Keywords: | H1N1 influenza SIR model stability analysis forecasting |
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