Intentions-to-Buy and Claimed Brand Usage

Consumers' expressed Intentions-to-buy different brands are frequently measured in marketing research. Study of several hundred surveys shows that a relationship between the percentage I of consumers expressing such an Intention-to-buy and the percentage U claiming current Usage of the brand can be represented by a single one-parameter relationship I = K √U ± 3. This holds for different brands (large and small) in over 20 product-fields, for different demographic subgroups, for certain different definitions of the Intentions and Usage variables, for some American as well as British data, and even for trends over time.Both the nature of this relationship between I and U and the paradoxical finding that relatively few people express an Intention-to-buy a new brand which is sub-sequently successful and that relatively many people do so for a brand which is slowly dying are explained by the effect of past Usage. Methodological conclusions of the findings are indicated.