| Abstract: | This paper describes a two-stage strategic planning model for determining the optimal R&D portfolio in the presence of both exploratory and developmental research projects. An example is illustrated in the context of energy research. Research portfolios are analysed using a Bayesian approach in which probability assessments are updated as new information generated by exploratory research becomes available. Useful insights are obtained through sensitivity analysis. It is found that exploratory research tends to exhibit a lumpy characteristic. |
