| 地震灾害人员伤亡预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈黛,白鹏飞,蔡冬雪. 地震灾害人员伤亡预测模型研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2017, 0(13): 208-215 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈黛 白鹏飞 蔡冬雪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京,100081;2. 首都经济贸易大学安全与环境工程学院,北京,100070;3. 中国科学院大学工程科学学院,北京,100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市自然科学基金(9164024),北京市社会科学基金(16GLC038),大中城市地震灾害情景构建重点专项(2016QJGJ12) |
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| 摘 要： | 地震人员伤亡的准确预测和评估是开展应急准备的重要前提,也是震后快速响应的重要依据.对典型的地震人员伤亡预测模型进行了总结和比较,探讨了各类模型的适用特性,搜集了云南省1996-2015年历史地震案例数据,利用相关性分析提取了影响人员伤亡的主要因素,通过对多元归回模型添加二次项并进行对数变换修正,建立了地震灾害伤亡人员预测模型,并通过案例应用验证了模型的有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震灾害 人员伤亡 预测模型 回归分析 |
Study on the Prediction Model of Human Casualties in Earthquake Disasters |
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| CHEN Dai,BAI Peng-fei,CAI Dong-xue. Study on the Prediction Model of Human Casualties in Earthquake Disasters[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2017, 0(13): 208-215 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Dai BAI Peng-fei CAI Dong-xue |
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| Abstract: | Prediction of human casualties is the essential prerequisite of preparedness and the emergency response.The prediction and assessment models of human casualties in earthquakes were surveyed,the earthquake data of Yunnan provincethrough 1996-2005 were collected,the influencing factors were extracted using correlation analysis,the quadratic term was integrated the regression model with Logarithmic transformation,then a new human casualties prediction model was built,and validated apply the historic data. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake disaster human casualties prediction model regression analysis |
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