Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in populations with heterogeneous contact rates |
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Authors: | E Volz |
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Institution: | (1) University of Texas-Austin, Section of Integrative Biology, Austin, TX 78751, USA |
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Abstract: | Heterogeneity of contact patterns is recognized as an important feature for realistic modeling of many epidemics. During an
outbreak, the frequency of contacts can vary a great deal from person to person and period to period. Contact heterogeneity
has been shown to have a large impact on epidemic thresholds and the final size of epidemics. We develop and apply a model
which incorporates an arbitrary distribution of contact rates. The model consists of a low-dimensional system of ordinary
differential equations which incorporates arbitrary heterogeneity by making use of generating functions of the contact rate
distribution.
We show further how this model can be applied to the study of simple intervention strategies, such as quarantine of public
venues with probability proportional to size. The dynamic model allows us to investigate the effects of gradually implementing
such strategies in response to an ongoing epidemic, and we investigate these strategies using data on the contact patterns
within a large US city. |
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Keywords: | PACS" target="_blank">PACS 87 23 Cc Population dynamics and ecological pattern formation |
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