一种基于动态模糊综合评判的故障预测新方法

针对影响装备寿命的许多故障因素和故障关系具有复杂性、非确定性以及时变性的特点，指出了传统模糊综合评判方法的不足，提出了基于动态模糊综合评判的故障预测方法，给出了动态权重矩阵和动态隶属度的确定方法，以火炮反后坐装置为例对评判过程予以说明，证明了该方法的有效性和实用性。并将模糊综合评判与产生式规则相融合，利用复合推理机制提高预测结果的准确性。

A New Fault Forecast Algorithm Based on Dynamic Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

Considering the complexity, uncertainty and variability of fault factors and relationships affecting the equipmentls service life, the deficiencies of traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are pointed out. A new fault forecast method based on dynamic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is put forward. And detailed confirmation methods of dynamic weight coefficient matrix and dynamic membership functions are given. The basic evaluation steps in an example of recoil system prove the validation and practicability of this method. The integrated inference mechanism including dynamic fuzzy evaluation and production rules obviously improves the veracity of the forecast results.