复杂气候系统和全球变暖

两位气候学家和一位理论物理学家共同荣获2021年诺贝尔物理学奖。诺贝尔物理学奖委员会在背景介绍材料中指出，他们在“理解复杂物理系统领域做出了开创性贡献”。相信很多人会对两位气候学家获奖而感到惊讶，物理学奖委员会进一步具体指出，人类活动导致全球变暖这一论断建立在坚实的科学基础之上，两位气候学家获奖是因为他们基于物理原理模拟地球气候、量化气候变率、可靠地预测全球变暖所做出的杰出贡献。物理学奖委员会将诺贝尔奖授予两位气候学家，表明对基于物理理论解决现实世界复杂物理问题的高度重视，尤其是对人类身处其中的气候环境问题的重视。文章将解读两位气候学家的学术贡献，尤其是如何基于基础物理理论建立预测全球变暖的模型以及检测和归因人类活动导致全球变暖的方法。

The complex climate system and global warming

Two climatologists and a theoretical physicist were awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics “for groundbreaking contributions to our understanding of complex physical systems”. Many of us might be surprised why two climatologists have won the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics. The committee of the Nobel Prize in Physics specifically pointed out that the understanding of global warming is founded on solid physics, and that the winning of the prize by the two climatologists is because they developed models based on physical principles to simulate the climate system, quantify climate variability, and reliably predict global warming. The prize indicates the importance of solving complex problems in the realistic world, especially the problem of global greenhouse warming. Here I address the scientific contributions of the two climatologists, focusing particularly on how they contributed to developing climate models and methods to solve the problem of global warming caused by anthropogenic activity.