| 我国保险赔付的时间序列分析——建模与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱宗元.我国保险赔付的时间序列分析——建模与预测[J].数理统计与管理,2010,29(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱宗元 |
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| 作者单位： | 泰山医学院管理学院,山东,泰安,271016 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用季节性时间序列模型,对我国保险业2002年1月至2008年11月的赔付支出数据进行分析,建立了Box-Jenkins季节模型,结果显示该模型具有较好的预测效果,可为我国保险业赔付的监管与决策提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 保险赔付 Box-Jenkins季节模型 预测 |
Time Series Analysis of Chinese Insurance Compensation——Modeling and Forecasting |
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| ZHU Zong-yuan.Time Series Analysis of Chinese Insurance Compensation——Modeling and Forecasting[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2010,29(4). |
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| Authors: | ZHU Zong-yuan |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,we use the seasonal time series model to analyze compensation date of Chinese insurance industry from January 2002 to November 2008 and establish the Box-Jenkins seasonal model. the results showed that the model has better prediction results,which can be used to provide reference for regulatory of Chinese insurance compensation and decision-making. |
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| Keywords: | insurance compensation Box-Jenkins seasonal model forecast |
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