台风强度研究综述

台风强度变化，尤其是强度的突变（突然加强和衰亡）是台风预报的难点.然而，由于缺乏对强度变化机理的认识，没有足够高的分辨率对现有数值模式表达强度变化精细的物理过程，近年来台风强度业务预报进展缓慢.研究表明，台风强度主要受3类因子影响，即大尺度环境场（如风垂直切变（Vertical Wind Shear，VWS))、海洋强迫（包括海表温度和海洋热容量（Oceanic Heat Content，OHC))以及台风自身的结构（含内核强对流变化（Density of core convection，DCC）以及内核变化）.三者间存在作用和反作用现象.

Study on the intensification and decaying of typhoons

The intensity change of typhoons over coastal water, especially its rapid change, is the key problem of typhoon forecast. But short of understanding of the intensity change mechanism and not enough high resolution of data to reflect the finer physical processes in present numerical models, which bring difficulties to improve forecast accuracy over past ten years. This study tries to gain a better understanding of the mechanism of rapid intensification and decay of typhoons over coastal water. The vertical wind shear, density of core convection, oceanic heat content and sea surface temperature are the basic factors reflecting the lange scale environmental flow. TC inner thermodynamical process and sea surface forcing, respectively. Meanwhile, there exists the phenomenon that the basic factors interact with each other and have an opposite effect on intensity.