电力系统可靠性的蒙特卡洛方法

本文首先对中国科学技术大学管理科研楼电力系统可靠度评估建立了线性传感器模型。由于线性传感器可靠度评估是一个#P问题,没有多项式时间的算法。所以本文运用了蒙特卡罗方法,考虑到未加改进的蒙特卡洛方法对于解决本身可靠度很高的系统时的效率非常低,本文使用了广泛应用于网络可靠性的RVR(Recursive Variance Reduction)方法,给出了可靠度的测算结果。

Monte Carlo Methods for Reliability Evaluation of Electric Power System

In this paper,we apply the Linear sensor systems in the realiability evaluation of electric power system of USTC Management Building.Evaluation of the reliability of a linear sensor system is a #P problem whose computational time increases exponentially with the increment of the number of sensors.To overcome this problem,Monte Carlo methods are developed in this paper to approximate the sensor system's reliability.The crude Monte Carlo method is not efficient when the sensor system is highly reliable.A Monte Carlo method that has been improved for network reliability,known as the Recursive Variance Reduction (RVR) method,is further adapted for this problem.