对北京市年需水量预测模型的研究

水资源的供给问题是每个城市都要面临的一项必须且复杂的基础建设任务。对城市需水量的预测直接关系到一个城市供水系统的建设规模与安全运行,是实现科学调度的必要前提。本文通过对北京市2001-2014年需水量及其影响因素相关数据的分析,分别建立了普通线性回归及偏最小二乘线性回归预测模型。通过对模型的比较分析及仿真模拟预测计算,发现偏最小二乘线性回归预测模型不仅易于解释,更适合做外推预测,具有较强的应用价值。

The Study of Beijing in Water Demand Forecast Model

Water supply problem is a basic and complicated construction task which every city will face.The prediction of the urban water demand is directly related to the construction scale of a city's water distribution system and safe operation,is the necessary premise to realize scientific scheduling.This article through to the Beijing municipal water demand in 2001-2014 and its influencing factors of the analysis of the relevant data,respectively established the ordinary least-squares regression and partial least-squares regression prediction model.Through the comparative analysis of the model and simulation prediction calculation,found that partial least-squares regression forecasting model not only is easy to explain,more suitable for extrapolation forecast,has strong application value.