基于SEC准则的油田开发规划不确定优化模型及算法

在油价低迷的国际背景下,上市石油公司进行油田开发规划时越来越重视经营效益。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)要求上市石油公司采用产量法计提折耗,极大地影响了石油公司开发规划方案的制定。油田开发受到自然、技术等多种不确定因素的影响,在制定开发规划时需充分考虑这些不确定性。本文基于不确定理论,考虑措施增油效果和新增投资两类不确定参数,以经营效益最大化和新增投资最小化为目标,构建了基于SEC准则的油田开发规划不确定优化模型,并利用差分进化算法求解,给出措施工作量的帕累托解集。本文以D油田年度规划为例,通过构建模型并求解,给出开发规划方案集,并进一步分析SEC储量的下降对上市石油公司经营效益、新增投资回报率、油气总产量、油气完全成本和措施工作量的影响,为企业制定开发规划方案提供参考。

Uncertain Programming Model and Algorithm for Oilfield Development Planning under SEC Criterion

In the international context of sluggish oil prices, listed oil companies pay more and more attention to business benefits when they plan oilfield development programing. As China's three major oil companies are listed on the New York Stock Exchange in the United States, the listed oil companies are required to adopt the unit production method to withdraw discount by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC), which greatly affect the results of the oil companies' development plans. Oilfield development planning is subject to many uncertain factors, such as nature and technology, and it is better to take full account of the uncertainty of those uncertain factors.On the basis of fully considering two types of uncertainties, namely the stimulation effect of oil measures and the new investment cost per well, and in order to satisfy the listed oil companies' pursuit of operating benefits in oil field development planning, this paper builds an uncertain oilfield development programming model under SEC criterion, and further uses differential evolution algorithm to solve it. In this paper, D oilfield annual development plan is taken as an example for analysis. It is found that the decrease of SEC reserves significantly influences business benefits, the return of new investment, annual oil production and oil complete costs, and these results can provide valuable references for enterprises to plan their development planning.