不平衡报价跨期选择的多因素交互作用研究

报价人的跨期选择心理特征将直接影响不平衡报价策略,从而影响工程结算额度与经营效益.为揭示不平衡报价决策者的跨期选择心理机制,针对不平衡报价策略制定过程中出现的跨期选择心理效应问题,基于跨期结算组合策略的最大效用原则,并假设报价决策者为有限理性人,引入时间尺度、时间框架、理性水平3个变量,采用23(3因素2水平)设计,通过发放调查问卷方式,对跨期选择的多因素交互作用进行研究.研究结果表明,时间尺度、理性水平及时间框架主效应显著;理性水平与时间框架、理性水平与时间尺度、理性水平与时间框架和时间尺度的交互作用显著.在日期框架中,时间尺度较小时的报价均高于时间尺度较大时的报价;在延迟天数时间框架中,高理性水平报价人在时间尺度较小时的报价低于时间尺度较大时的报价,而低理性水平报价人则相反.研究结果对于增强不平衡报价决策效率、实现理性化决策具有重要的指导意义.

The Research on Multi-factor Interaction of Intertemporal Choice for Unbalanced Bid

The psychological characteristics of the bidder's intertemporal choice will directly affect the unbalanced bid strategy, thereby affecting the amount of the project's settlement and operating benefits. To reveal the psychological mechanism of intertemporal choice under unbalanced bid, aiming at psychological effect of intertemporal choice during the process of making decision for unbalanced bid, the reasonable assumption is that decision makers are limited rational men in view of the maximum utility principle of intertemporal settled accounts strategy. Through releasing questionnaires, we study the multi factor interaction of intertemporal choice. The main effect of rational level, time scale and time frame is significant. The interaction is obvious between rational level and time frame, rational level and time scale. The interaction is also apparent among rational level, time frame and time scale. In date frame, the rational offer is significantly higher than emotional one. In delayed days frame, high rational level bidder prefers higher price when the time scale is larger, while the low rational level bidder are the opposite. The research results have important guiding significance for enhancing the efficiency of unbalanced bidding decision-making and realizing rational decision-making.