考虑突发事件状态转移的政府应急物资采购定价模型

突发事件发生后,应急物资需求量呈现爆发式增长,政府首先将常规物资调拨至受灾区,并根据阶段性救灾成果作出应急物资采购决策。突发事件状态总是不断发生转移,使得政府已采购的物资在状态好转时容易造成浪费,在状态持续恶化时又不足以满足突发需求,因此考虑突发事件状态转移情形的应急物资采购定价策略对提升政府应急物资保障能力尤为关键。为此,本研究引入数量柔性契约到政府与应急物资供应商组成的两级应急物资采购供应链,构建了基于突发事件状态转移的应急物资采购定价模型,推导得出政企达成合作的条件与双方最优决策策略,并对比分析了契约合作与分散非合作下的供应商利润与政府成本。进一步采用数值计算与敏感性分析验证该模型的有效性,讨论了若干外生变量对政企最优决策与双方成本收益的影响,提出重要的管理启示。研究表明,考虑突发事件状态转移的基于数量柔性契约的政府应急物资采购定价模型既可以有效提高应急物资储备水平,又能保障供应商的合理收益以及控制政府成本,实现了政企双赢。

Government'sEmergency Supplies Procurement Pricing Model Considering E mergency'sState Transition

The demand for emergency supplies after a sudden emergency strikes is growing at an explosive rate.In generally,the government first transfers regular supplies to disaster areas,and then makes decisions on relief supplies procurement according to the phased results.Because the state of the sudden disaster is always shifting,the purchased emergency supplies will result in waste if the emergency state gets better.The government can’t meet the demand for emergency supplies if the emergency state continues to deteriorate.It is of great importance to take the state transition of emergencies into the government’s procurement pricing strategies for emergency supplies.Therefore,this article applies quantity flexible contract(QFC)to the two-stage supply chain with a supplier and a single government.The procurement pricing model of the government’s emergency supplies is established based on QFC considering the state transition of emergencies.We uncover the condition that the gov-ernment and the supplier reach cooperation.The optimal decisions of the government’s procurement pricing and the supplier’s reserved quantity are derived.The supplier’s profit and the government’s cost under QFC and non-cooperation are compared.Furthermore,numerical calculation and sensitivity analysis are used to analyze the influence of several exogenous variables on the decision strategies of the government and the supplier and each participant’s revenue(cost).Several important managerial implications are attained.The proposed model based on QFC and state transition could not only improve the level of the total reserved quantity of emergency supplies,but also safeguard the supplier’s profit and control the government’s cost.