Polyfunctional methodology for improved DFT thermochemical predictions

Statistical error distributions for enthalpies of formation as predicted by 18 different density functionals have been analyzed using a test set of 675 molecules. Systematic errors, dependent on the number of valence electrons, have been identified for some functionals. A simple empirical correction makes a significant improvement in the prediction error for these single functionals. Linear combinations of enthalpy estimates from different density functionals are identified that exploit the error correlations among the functionals and allow for further improvements in the accuracy of thermodynamic predictions. A good compromise between accuracy and computational efforts is achieved by the BLUE (best linear unbiased estimator) combination of three functionals, B3LYP, BLYP, and VSXC (polyfunctional 3 or PF3). The PF3 method has a mean absolute deviation (MAD) from experiment of 2.4 kcal/mol on the G3 set of 271 molecules. This can be compared to the MAD of 4.9 kcal/mol for B3LYP and 1.2 kcal/mol for the more costly G3 method. On the larger set of 675 molecules, the MAD for PF3 is 3.0 kcal/mol. Opportunities for further improvements in the accuracy of this method are discussed.